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Paris FC vs Valenciennes — Ligue 2 2018

Paris FC
Paris FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Valenciennes
Valenciennes
4/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Paris FC49%
×Draw27%
Valenciennes24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paris FC
1.42
Valenciennes
0.92

Paris FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 109 away

creates per match

Paris FC
1.42
Valenciennes
0.90

allows per match

Paris FC
0.94
Valenciennes
1.41

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par
Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Valenciennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw
76%
Paris FC or Valenciennes
73%
Draw or Valenciennes
51%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+
24%
Valenciennes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals
76%
Paris FC 2+ goals
41%
Paris FC 3+ goals
17%
Valenciennes 1+ goals
60%
Valenciennes 2+ goals
23%
Valenciennes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)
67%
Valenciennes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 127 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 1.42 + Valenciennes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Valenciennes attack 0.90 + Paris FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Paris FC scores more
49%
level
27%
Valenciennes scores more
24%

Paris FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Paris FC 2–1 Valenciennes

Paris FC beat Valenciennes 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Charléty in Paris.