Paris FC 3–1 Valenciennes: Result & Stats

Paris FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Valenciennes

1/6/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade Charléty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Paris FC63%

×Draw17%

Valenciennes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paris FCExpected goals in this matchValenciennes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.53

Paris FC

2.76

Valenciennes

1.53

Paris FC creates 80% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

4.60

creates per match

1.86

1.20

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Paris FC

4.60

Valenciennes

1.86

allows per match

Paris FC

1.20

Valenciennes

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paris FC+0.00on par

Valenciennes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paris FC ↓

Valenciennes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Paris FC or draw

80%

Paris FC or Valenciennes

83%

Draw or Valenciennes

37%

Winning margin

Paris FC wins by 2+

42%

Valenciennes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Paris FC 1+ goals

94%

Paris FC 2+ goals

76%

Paris FC 3+ goals

51%

Valenciennes 1+ goals

78%

Valenciennes 2+ goals

45%

Valenciennes 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Paris FC (draw refunded)

76%

Valenciennes (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paris FC at home — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Valenciennes away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paris FC attack 4.60 + Valenciennes defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 2.76

Valenciennes attack 1.86 + Paris FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Paris FC scores more

63%

level

17%

Valenciennes scores more

20%

Paris FC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Paris FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff