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Valašské Meziříčí vs Unie Hlubina — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Unie Hlubina
Unie Hlubina
4/28/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 20Stadion Valašské Meziřičí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Valašské Meziříčí35%
×Draw23%
Unie Hlubina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Valašské Meziříčí
1.58
Unie Hlubina
1.75

Unie Hlubina creates 11% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Valašské Meziříčí
2.09
Unie Hlubina
1.68

allows per match

Valašské Meziříčí
1.81
Unie Hlubina
1.07

finishing

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par
Unie Hlubina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valašské Meziříčí ↓

Unie Hlubina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Valašské Meziříčí or draw
58%
Valašské Meziříčí or Unie Hlubina
77%
Draw or Unie Hlubina
65%

Winning margin

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
17%
Unie Hlubina wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
79%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
47%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
21%
Unie Hlubina 1+ goals
83%
Unie Hlubina 2+ goals
52%
Unie Hlubina 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
45%
Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valašské Meziříčí at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Unie Hlubina away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valašské Meziříčí attack 2.09 + Unie Hlubina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.58

Unie Hlubina attack 1.68 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Valašské Meziříčí scores more
35%
level
23%
Unie Hlubina scores more
42%

Unie Hlubina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Valašské Meziříčí vs Unie Hlubina

Unie Hlubina beat Valašské Meziříčí 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Valašské Meziřičí in Valašské Meziříčí.