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Unie Hlubina vs Valašské Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Unie Hlubina
Unie Hlubina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Valašské Meziříčí
Valašské Meziříčí
9/28/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Stadion TJ Unie Hlubina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Unie Hlubina56%
×Draw21%
Valašské Meziříčí23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unie Hlubina
2.08
Valašské Meziříčí
1.28

Unie Hlubina creates 63% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Unie Hlubina
2.18
Valašské Meziříčí
1.63

allows per match

Unie Hlubina
0.93
Valašské Meziříčí
1.98

finishing

Unie Hlubina+0.00on par
Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unie Hlubina ↓

Valašské Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Unie Hlubina or draw
77%
Unie Hlubina or Valašské Meziříčí
79%
Draw or Valašské Meziříčí
44%

Winning margin

Unie Hlubina wins by 2+
33%
Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Unie Hlubina 1+ goals
87%
Unie Hlubina 2+ goals
61%
Unie Hlubina 3+ goals
34%
Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals
72%
Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals
37%
Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Unie Hlubina (draw refunded)
71%
Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unie Hlubina at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Valašské Meziříčí away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.98 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unie Hlubina attack 2.18 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.08

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.63 + Unie Hlubina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Unie Hlubina scores more
56%
level
21%
Valašské Meziříčí scores more
23%

Unie Hlubina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Unie Hlubina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Unie Hlubina 2–1 Valašské Meziříčí

Unie Hlubina beat Valašské Meziříčí 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Unie Hlubina in Ostrava.