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V-varen Nagasaki vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
8/1/2018J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 19Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki39%
×Draw25%
Consadole Sapporo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.47
Consadole Sapporo
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 123 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.20
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.56
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
64%
V-varen Nagasaki or Consadole Sapporo
75%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
61%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
18%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
77%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
43%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
18%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
76%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
41%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
51%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.20 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
39%
level
25%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
36%

V-varen Nagasaki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs Consadole Sapporo

Consadole Sapporo beat V-varen Nagasaki 3-2 in J1 League on August 1, 2018.

The match was played at Nagasaki Prefectural Stadium in Isahaya.