Consadole Sapporo 2–1 V-varen Nagasaki

Consadole Sapporo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

3/18/2018

J1 League · Round 4Sapporo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Consadole Sapporo45%

×Draw25%

V-varen Nagasaki30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consadole SapporoExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.23

Consadole Sapporo

1.58

V-varen Nagasaki

1.23

Consadole Sapporo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 27 away

1.49

creates per match

1.04

1.41

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.49

V-varen Nagasaki

1.04

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo

1.41

V-varen Nagasaki

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw

70%

Consadole Sapporo or V-varen Nagasaki

75%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

55%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+

23%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals

79%

Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals

47%

Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals

21%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

71%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

35%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)

60%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more

45%

level

25%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

30%

Consadole Sapporo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff