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Consadole Sapporo vs V-varen Nagasaki — J2 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
4/29/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 12Sapporo Atsubetsu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Consadole Sapporo34%
×Draw25%
V-varen Nagasaki41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.35
V-varen Nagasaki
1.52

V-varen Nagasaki creates 13% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 143 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.45
V-varen Nagasaki
1.48

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.55
V-varen Nagasaki
1.25

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
59%
Consadole Sapporo or V-varen Nagasaki
75%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
66%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
15%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
74%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
39%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
15%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
78%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
45%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
45%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.45 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
34%
level
25%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
41%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Consadole Sapporo 2–2 V-varen Nagasaki

Consadole Sapporo and V-varen Nagasaki drew 2-2 in J2 League on April 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sapporo Atsubetsu Stadium in Sapporo.