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Utsikten vs Gais — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gais
Gais
3/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Utsikten6%
×Draw13%
Gais81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
0.65
Gais
2.75

Gais creates 323% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Utsikten
0.50
Gais
2.00

allows per match

Utsikten
3.50
Gais
0.80

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–213%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
19%
Utsikten or Gais
87%
Draw or Gais
94%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
2%
Gais wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
48%
Utsikten 2+ goals
14%
Utsikten 3+ goals
3%
Gais 1+ goals
93%
Gais 2+ goals
75%
Gais 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
7%
Gais (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Gais away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 0.50 + Gais defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Gais attack 2.00 + Utsikten defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Utsikten scores more
6%
level
13%
Gais scores more
81%

Gais at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Utsikten 0–3 Gais

Gais beat Utsikten 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 12, 2025.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.