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Gais vs Utsikten — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Gais
Gais
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Utsikten
Utsikten
3/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Valhalla IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gais66%
×Draw19%
Utsikten15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gais
2.20
Utsikten
0.95

Gais creates 132% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Gais
1.56
Utsikten
1.33

allows per match

Gais
0.56
Utsikten
2.83

finishing

Gais+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gais ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Gais or draw
85%
Gais or Utsikten
81%
Draw or Utsikten
34%

Winning margin

Gais wins by 2+
42%
Utsikten wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Gais 1+ goals
89%
Gais 2+ goals
64%
Gais 3+ goals
37%
Utsikten 1+ goals
61%
Utsikten 2+ goals
25%
Utsikten 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gais (draw refunded)
81%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gais at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gais attack 1.56 + Utsikten defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Utsikten attack 1.33 + Gais defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Gais scores more
66%
level
19%
Utsikten scores more
15%

Gais at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Gais will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gais 0 – 0 Utsikten

Gais and Utsikten drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Valhalla IP in Göteborg.