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Utsikten vs Gais — Superettan 2026

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gais
Gais
4/16/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 3Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Utsikten44%
×Draw25%
Gais30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
1.52
Gais
1.21

Utsikten creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 76 away

creates per match

Utsikten
1.79
Gais
1.21

allows per match

Utsikten
1.21
Gais
1.26

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
70%
Utsikten or Gais
75%
Draw or Gais
56%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
22%
Gais wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
78%
Utsikten 2+ goals
45%
Utsikten 3+ goals
20%
Gais 1+ goals
70%
Gais 2+ goals
34%
Gais 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
59%
Gais (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Gais away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Gais defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gais attack 1.21 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Utsikten scores more
44%
level
25%
Gais scores more
30%

Utsikten at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utsikten vs Gais

Gais beat Utsikten 2-1 in Superettan on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.