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UTS Rabat vs Chabab Mohammédia — Botola Pro 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
3/7/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat44%
×Draw30%
Chabab Mohammédia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.20
Chabab Mohammédia
0.85

UTS Rabat creates 41% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.12
Chabab Mohammédia
0.63

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.08
Chabab Mohammédia
1.28

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
74%
UTS Rabat or Chabab Mohammédia
70%
Draw or Chabab Mohammédia
56%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
19%
Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
70%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
34%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
12%
Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
57%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
21%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
63%
Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
44%
level
30%
Chabab Mohammédia scores more
26%

UTS Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: UTS Rabat 2–1 Chabab Mohammédia

UTS Rabat beat Chabab Mohammédia 2-1 in Botola Pro on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.