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Chabab Mohammédia vs UTS Rabat — Cup 2020

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
2 – 6
HT: 2 – 4
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
3/29/2025CupCup · 16th FinalsStade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia20%
×Draw20%
UTS Rabat60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.17
UTS Rabat
2.17

UTS Rabat creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.33
UTS Rabat
2.50

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.83
UTS Rabat
1.00

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
40%
Chabab Mohammédia or UTS Rabat
80%
Draw or UTS Rabat
80%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
8%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
69%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
33%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
11%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
89%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
64%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
25%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 1.33 + UTS Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

UTS Rabat attack 2.50 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
20%
level
20%
UTS Rabat scores more
60%

UTS Rabat at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Mohammédia vs UTS Rabat

UTS Rabat beat Chabab Mohammédia 6-2 in Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.