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Chabab Mohammédia vs UTS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
4/27/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia33%
×Draw28%
UTS Rabat39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
1.11
UTS Rabat
1.25

UTS Rabat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 61 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
UTS Rabat
1.07

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
UTS Rabat
1.36

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
61%
Chabab Mohammédia or UTS Rabat
72%
Draw or UTS Rabat
67%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
13%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
67%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
30%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
10%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
71%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
36%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
45%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + UTS Rabat defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

UTS Rabat attack 1.07 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
33%
level
28%
UTS Rabat scores more
39%

UTS Rabat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chabab Mohammédia vs UTS Rabat

UTS Rabat beat Chabab Mohammédia 2-0 in Botola Pro on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.