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Utrera vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Brian Triviño 69'
Mario Begines 33'
Moisés Aguilar 18' (OG)
Sebas 4'
10/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 6Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Utrera56%
×Draw24%
La Palma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.65
La Palma
0.86

Utrera creates 92% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 48 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
80%
Utrera or La Palma
76%
Draw or La Palma
44%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
30%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
81%
Utrera 2+ goals
49%
Utrera 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
58%
La Palma 2+ goals
21%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
74%
La Palma (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

La Palma attack 0.88 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Utrera scores more
56%
level
24%
La Palma scores more
20%

Utrera at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Sebas
18'
Moisés AguilarOwn goal
33'
Mario Begines
40'
Pana← Carlos Rojas
40'
Pedro Juan← Juan Martín
46'
Alejandro Rovira← Kiki
51'
Chata← C. Susmel
62'
Plusco← Manu
62'
Álex Fernández← Iván Navarro
64'
Manolo Suárez← José Cortés
64'
Manu Picón← Diego Luís
69'
Chema Almansa← Sebas González
69'
Diego Rosado← Álvaro Fernández
69'
Brian Triviño
Utrera
La
Ismael Falcón
Falcón
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Diego Luís
▼
Luís
Carlos Rojas
▼
Rojas
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Moisés Aguilar
🥅
Aguilar
Juan Martín
▼
Martín
José Cortés
▼
Cortés
Diego Vargas
Vargas
Álvaro Rodríguez
Rodríguez
Mario Begines
⚽
Begines
Sebas González
▼
González
José María Leal
Leal
Sebas
⚽
Sebas
C. Susmel
▼
Susmel
Antonio Domínguez
Domínguez
Kiki
▼
Kiki
Brian Triviño
⚽
Triviño
Iván Navarro
▼
Navarro
Manu
▼
Manu
Miguel Ángel Montoya
Manager: Miguel Ángel Montoya
46'▲Alejandro Rovira←▼Kiki
51'▲Chata←▼C. Susmel
62'▲Plusco←▼Manu
62'▲Álex Fernández←▼Iván Navarro
69'▲Chema Almansa←▼Sebas González

Utrera substitutes

RoviraChataPluscoFernándezAlmansa
Jaime
Manager: Jaime
40'▲Pana←▼Carlos Rojas
40'▲Pedro Juan←▼Juan Martín
64'▲Manolo Suárez←▼José Cortés
64'▲Manu Picón←▼Diego Luís
69'▲Diego Rosado←▼Álvaro Fernández

La Palma substitutes

PanaJuanSuárezPicónRosado

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Utrera 4–0 La Palma

Utrera beat La Palma 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 13, 2024.

Goals: Sebas (4'), Moisés Aguilar (18' o.g.), Mario Begines (33'), Brian Triviño (69').

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Utrera.