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Utrera vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Mario de Iraola 68'
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Utrera56%
×Draw24%
La Palma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.65
La Palma
0.86

Utrera creates 92% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 48 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
80%
Utrera or La Palma
76%
Draw or La Palma
44%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
30%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
81%
Utrera 2+ goals
49%
Utrera 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
58%
La Palma 2+ goals
21%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
74%
La Palma (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

La Palma attack 0.88 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Utrera scores more
56%
level
24%
La Palma scores more
20%

Utrera at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Rubén Cruz← Rober
53'
Ranchero← Jesús Sosa
68'
Titi Romero← Lua
68'
Sergio Ortiz← Fernando López
68'
Mario de Iraola
78'
Adrián Trabazo← Moi Rodríguez
85'
Benji← Mazin
85'
Segura← Pablo Garcia
Utrera
La
José Gil
Gil
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pirri
Pirri
Alberto Sánchez
Sánchez
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Manu Calle
Calle
Paco
Paco
Mario de Iraola
⚽
Iraola
Pablo Garcia
▼
Garcia
Mazin
▼
Mazin
Antonio Ayala
Ayala
Fernando López
▼
López
Moi Rodríguez
▼
Rodríguez
Álex del Río
Río
Cachana
Cachana
Kiki
Kiki
Lua
▼
Lua
Jesús Sosa
▼
Sosa
Rober
▼
Rober
Jairo Caballero
Caballero
Plusco
Plusco
Jesús Galván
Manager: Jesús Galván
53'▲Rubén Cruz←▼Rober
53'▲Ranchero←▼Jesús Sosa
68'▲Titi Romero←▼Lua
68'▲Sergio Ortiz←▼Fernando López
78'▲Adrián Trabazo←▼Moi Rodríguez

Utrera substitutes

CruzRancheroRomeroOrtizTrabazo
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
85'▲Benji←▼Mazin
85'▲Segura←▼Pablo Garcia

La Palma substitutes

BenjiSegura

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Utrera 0–1 La Palma

La Palma beat Utrera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 31, 2021.

Goals: Mario de Iraola (68').

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Sevilla.