Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Utrera vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Palma
La Palma
Marrufo 26'
Omar 11'
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 17Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Utrera56%
×Draw24%
La Palma20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.65
La Palma
0.86

Utrera creates 92% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 48 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
80%
Utrera or La Palma
76%
Draw or La Palma
44%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
30%
La Palma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
81%
Utrera 2+ goals
49%
Utrera 3+ goals
23%
La Palma 1+ goals
58%
La Palma 2+ goals
21%
La Palma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
74%
La Palma (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

La Palma attack 0.88 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Utrera scores more
56%
level
24%
La Palma scores more
20%

Utrera at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Omar
26'
Marrufo
58'
J. Montaño← Marrufo
67'
Bouba Ba← Juan Benítez
68'
Alejandro Rovira← David Giráldez
68'
Manu Picón← Ranchero
77'
Álvaro Perea← Álex Sánchez
77'
Pedro Juan← Zaca
78'
David Segura← Plusco
90+6'
Manolo Suárez← Álvaro Fernández
Utrera
La
Julen Fernández
Fernández
Antonio Mesa
Mesa
Rafa Navarro
Navarro
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Andrés Pavón
Pavón
Alejandro Pérez
Pérez
Omar
⚽
Omar
Álvaro Fernández
▼
Fernández
Juan Benítez
▼
Benítez
Álex Sánchez
▼
Sánchez
Zaca
▼
Zaca
Jesús Navajas
Navajas
Mario Begines
Begines
Christian Jiménez
Jiménez
José María Leal
Leal
Sebas
Sebas
Marrufo
⚽
▼
Marrufo
David Giráldez
▼
Giráldez
Iván Romero
Romero
Plusco
▼
Plusco
Ranchero
▼
Ranchero
Joaquín Delgado
Delgado
Miguel Ángel Montoya
Manager: Miguel Ángel Montoya
58'▲J. Montaño←▼Marrufo
68'▲Alejandro Rovira←▼David Giráldez
68'▲Manu Picón←▼Ranchero
78'▲David Segura←▼Plusco

Utrera substitutes

MontañoRoviraPicónSegura
Nacho Molina
Manager: Nacho Molina
67'▲Bouba Ba←▼Juan Benítez
77'▲Álvaro Perea←▼Álex Sánchez
77'▲Pedro Juan←▼Zaca
90+6'▲Manolo Suárez←▼Álvaro Fernández

La Palma substitutes

BaPereaJuanSuárez

Match Recap: Utrera vs La Palma

Utrera and La Palma drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 14, 2024.

Goals: Omar (11'), Marrufo (26').

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Utrera.