Utrecht 1–0 NAC Breda: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Utrecht

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NAC Breda

O. Fraulo 59'

3/1/2025

Eredivisie · Round 24Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Utrecht51%

×Draw23%

NAC Breda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtrechtExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.20

Utrecht

1.79

NAC Breda

1.20

Utrecht creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 10 away

1.67

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Utrecht

1.67

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

Utrecht

1.10

NAC Breda

1.91

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Utrecht+0.12scores more

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw

74%

Utrecht or NAC Breda

77%

Draw or NAC Breda

49%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+

28%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals

83%

Utrecht 2+ goals

53%

Utrecht 3+ goals

26%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

70%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

34%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)

67%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 38 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.67 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.79

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + Utrecht defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Utrecht scores more

51%

level

23%

NAC Breda scores more

26%

Utrecht at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

O. Fraulo

Utrecht · M

8.7

Match Events

58'

Casper Staring

58'

M. Jonathans← J. Toornstra

59'

O. Fraulo

71'

Zidane Iqbal

72'

K. Sowah← C. Staring

72'

Adam Kaied← E. Ómarsson

73'

D. Janošek← C. Leemans

77'

V. Jensen← P. Aaronson

80'

Boyd Lucassen

82'

B. Kemper← B. Lucassen

87'

K. Kostorz← F. Oldrup Jensen

89'

A. Engwanda← Zidane Iqbal

89'

N. Ohio← D. Min

90+3'

Jan Van den Bergh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UtrechtNAC

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots8

2.31Expected Goals (xG)0.50

6Corners2

13Fouls19

Shots

19Total Shots8

5On Target3

7Off Target5

7Blocked0

15Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

485Total Passes374

390Accurate Passes286

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.94Goals Prevented0.94

Discipline

13Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1