NAC Breda 1–1 Utrecht: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

NAC Breda

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Utrecht

R. Paula 20'

D. de Wit 26'

12/14/2025

Eredivisie · Round 16Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

NAC Breda39%

×Draw26%

Utrecht35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchUtrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

NAC Breda

1.40

Utrecht

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 32 away

1.10

creates per match

1.33

1.30

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.10

Utrecht

1.33

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.30

Utrecht

1.69

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

NAC Breda-0.60scores less

Utrecht+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

65%

NAC Breda or Utrecht

74%

Draw or Utrecht

61%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

18%

Utrecht wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

75%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

41%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

17%

Utrecht 1+ goals

73%

Utrecht 2+ goals

38%

Utrecht 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

53%

Utrecht (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.10 + Utrecht defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

Utrecht attack 1.33 + NAC Breda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NAC Breda scores more

39%

level

26%

Utrecht scores more

35%

NAC Breda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

D. Bielica

NAC Breda · G

8.0

Match Events

4'

Denis Odoi

20'

R. Paula↳ J. Talvitie

26'

D. de Wit↳ S. El Karouani

36'

Clint Leemans

38'

Dani de Wit

67'

M. Nassoh← C. Leemans

67'

S. van Hooijdonk← L. Holtby

67'

B. Ghalidi← R. Paula

68'

C. Bozdogan← G. Zechiel

68'

A. Blake← M. Rodriguez

68'

S. Haller← D. de Wit

76'

Niklas Vesterlund

80'

E. Demircan←

81'

S. Horemans← N. Vesterlund

83'

M. Soumano← J. Talvitie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NACUtrecht

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots11

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.66

6Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target6

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

10Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

535Total Passes413

464Accurate Passes346

87%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.13Goals Prevented0.13

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2