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NAC Breda vs Utrecht — Eredivisie 2026

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Utrecht
Utrecht
J. Bahebeck 58', 34'
W. Janssen 54'
Simon Gustafson 44' (pen)
3/16/2019EredivisieEredivisie · Round 26Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

NAC Breda40%
×Draw25%
Utrecht34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.46
Utrecht
1.33

NAC Breda creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 32 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.22
Utrecht
1.33

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.32
Utrecht
1.69

finishing

NAC Breda-0.58scores less
Utrecht+0.45scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
66%
NAC Breda or Utrecht
75%
Draw or Utrecht
60%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
19%
Utrecht wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
77%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
43%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
18%
Utrecht 1+ goals
74%
Utrecht 2+ goals
38%
Utrecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
54%
Utrecht (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Utrecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.22 + Utrecht defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Utrecht attack 1.33 + NAC Breda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

NAC Breda scores more
40%
level
25%
Utrecht scores more
34%

NAC Breda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
J. BahebeckUtrechtUtrecht · F
8.6

Match Events

23'
Jean-Christophe Bahebeck
31'
Erik Palmer-Brown
32'
Menno Koch
34'
J. Bahebeck↳ N. Gavory
44'
Simon GustafsonPenalty
46'
M. El Allouchi← D. Dervite
54'
W. Janssen↳ N. Gavory
58'
J. Bahebeck↳ G. Kerk
71'
L. Görtler← J. Bahebeck
75'
A. Kali← Paolo Fernandes
79'
R. Strieder← Simon Gustafson
79'
O. Boussaid← G. Kerk
80'
G. Kastaneer← M. Rosheuvel

Possession

33%NAC

Shots

8NAC

Pass accuracy

48%NAC

Statistics

NACUtrecht
Overview
33%Possession67%
8Total Shots17
1Corners4
23Fouls7
Shots
8Total Shots17
1On Target5
6Off Target5
1Blocked7
4Inside Box10
4Outside Box7
Passing
33%Possession67%
326Total Passes647
257Accurate Passes561
79%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
23Fouls7
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 0–4 Utrecht

Utrecht beat NAC Breda 4-0 in Eredivisie on March 16, 2019.

Goals: J. Bahebeck (34', 58'), Simon Gustafson (44' pen), W. Janssen (54').

Utrecht controlled possession (67%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.