Utah Royals W 1–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Utah Royals W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chicago Red Stars W

4/4/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageRio Tinto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Utah Royals W44%

×Draw26%

Chicago Red Stars W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Utah Royals WExpected goals in this matchChicago Red Stars W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Utah Royals W

1.48

Chicago Red Stars W

1.19

Utah Royals W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 84 away

1.09

creates per match

1.13

1.24

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Utah Royals W

1.09

Chicago Red Stars W

1.13

allows per match

Utah Royals W

1.24

Chicago Red Stars W

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw

70%

Utah Royals W or Chicago Red Stars W

74%

Draw or Chicago Red Stars W

56%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

21%

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

77%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

43%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

19%

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

70%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

33%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

59%

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Utah Royals W defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Utah Royals W scores more

44%

level

26%

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

30%

Utah Royals W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff