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Utah Royals W vs Chicago Red Stars W — NWSL Women 2026

Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chicago Red Stars W
Chicago Red Stars W
4/19/2025NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 5America First Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Utah Royals W44%
×Draw26%
Chicago Red Stars W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Royals W
1.48
Chicago Red Stars W
1.19

Utah Royals W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 84 away

creates per match

Utah Royals W
1.09
Chicago Red Stars W
1.13

allows per match

Utah Royals W
1.24
Chicago Red Stars W
1.86

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par
Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Chicago Red Stars W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw
70%
Utah Royals W or Chicago Red Stars W
74%
Draw or Chicago Red Stars W
56%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+
21%
Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals
77%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
43%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
19%
Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals
70%
Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals
33%
Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
59%
Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Chicago Red Stars W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.86 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.09 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.13 + Utah Royals W defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Utah Royals W scores more
44%
level
26%
Chicago Red Stars W scores more
30%

Utah Royals W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Utah Royals W 1–0 Chicago Red Stars W

Utah Royals W beat Chicago Red Stars W 1-0 in NWSL Women on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at America First Field in Sandy.