Chicago Red Stars W 2–2 Utah Royals W

Chicago Red Stars W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Utah Royals W

10/5/2025

NWSL Women · Round 23SeatGeek Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Chicago Red Stars W44%

×Draw26%

Utah Royals W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chicago Red Stars WExpected goals in this matchUtah Royals W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Chicago Red Stars W

1.48

Utah Royals W

1.19

Chicago Red Stars W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 48 away

1.43

creates per match

1.02

1.36

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.43

Utah Royals W

1.02

allows per match

Chicago Red Stars W

1.36

Utah Royals W

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chicago Red Stars W+0.00on par

Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chicago Red Stars W ↓

Utah Royals W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chicago Red Stars W or draw

70%

Chicago Red Stars W or Utah Royals W

74%

Draw or Utah Royals W

56%

Winning margin

Chicago Red Stars W wins by 2+

21%

Utah Royals W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chicago Red Stars W 1+ goals

77%

Chicago Red Stars W 2+ goals

43%

Chicago Red Stars W 3+ goals

19%

Utah Royals W 1+ goals

70%

Utah Royals W 2+ goals

33%

Utah Royals W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chicago Red Stars W (draw refunded)

59%

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chicago Red Stars W at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chicago Red Stars W attack 1.43 + Utah Royals W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Utah Royals W attack 1.02 + Chicago Red Stars W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chicago Red Stars W scores more

44%

level

26%

Utah Royals W scores more

30%

Chicago Red Stars W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chicago Red Stars W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff