Ustrem Donchevo 3–0 Benkovski Byala: Result & Stats

Ustrem Donchevo

FT

3 – 0

Benkovski Byala

10/31/2019

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 11Stadion Donchevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ustrem Donchevo73%

×Draw16%

Benkovski Byala12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ustrem DonchevoExpected goals in this matchBenkovski Byala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.71

1.01

Ustrem Donchevo

2.71

Benkovski Byala

1.01

Ustrem Donchevo creates 168% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 20 away

1.81

creates per match

0.30

1.72

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.81

Benkovski Byala

0.30

allows per match

Ustrem Donchevo

1.72

Benkovski Byala

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ustrem Donchevo ↓

Benkovski Byala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ustrem Donchevo or draw

88%

Ustrem Donchevo or Benkovski Byala

84%

Draw or Benkovski Byala

27%

Winning margin

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

51%

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

93%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

75%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

50%

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals

64%

Benkovski Byala 2+ goals

27%

Benkovski Byala 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

86%

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ustrem Donchevo at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.72 · 102 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.81 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.71

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

73%

level

16%

Benkovski Byala scores more

12%

Ustrem Donchevo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ustrem Donchevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff