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Benkovski Byala vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
00:00
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
4/17/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 24Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala50%
×Draw22%
Ustrem Donchevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
2.00
Ustrem Donchevo
1.44

Benkovski Byala creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 105 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
72%
Benkovski Byala or Ustrem Donchevo
78%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
50%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
29%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
86%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
59%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
32%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
76%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
42%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
64%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
50%
level
22%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
28%

Benkovski Byala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Benkovski Byala host Ustrem Donchevo

April 17, 2020: Benkovski Byala take on Ustrem Donchevo in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Benkovski Byala host Ustrem Donchevo at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.