Benkovski Byala 2–0 Ustrem Donchevo: Result & Stats

Benkovski Byala

FT

2 – 0

Ustrem Donchevo

3/17/2019

Third League - Northeast · Round 19Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Byala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala50%

×Draw22%

Ustrem Donchevo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benkovski ByalaExpected goals in this matchUstrem Donchevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.44

Benkovski Byala

2.00

Ustrem Donchevo

1.44

Benkovski Byala creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 105 away

1.37

creates per match

1.24

1.63

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Benkovski Byala

1.37

Ustrem Donchevo

1.24

allows per match

Benkovski Byala

1.63

Ustrem Donchevo

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw

72%

Benkovski Byala or Ustrem Donchevo

78%

Draw or Ustrem Donchevo

50%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+

29%

Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals

86%

Benkovski Byala 2+ goals

59%

Benkovski Byala 3+ goals

32%

Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals

76%

Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals

42%

Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)

64%

Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more

50%

level

22%

Ustrem Donchevo scores more

28%

Benkovski Byala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Benkovski Byala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff