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Usm El Harrach vs Amal BOU Saada — League #187 2026

Usm El Harrach
Usm El Harrach
FT
1 – 1
Amal BOU Saada
Amal BOU Saada
4/24/2021League #187League #187 · Center - 13Stade du 1er novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Usm El Harrach40%
×Draw30%
Amal BOU Saada30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Usm El Harrach
1.16
Amal BOU Saada
0.97

Usm El Harrach creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Usm El Harrach
0.67
Amal BOU Saada
0.94

allows per match

Usm El Harrach
1.00
Amal BOU Saada
1.65

finishing

Usm El Harrach+0.00on par
Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Usm El Harrach ↓

Amal BOU Saada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Usm El Harrach or draw
70%
Usm El Harrach or Amal BOU Saada
70%
Draw or Amal BOU Saada
60%

Winning margin

Usm El Harrach wins by 2+
17%
Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Usm El Harrach 1+ goals
69%
Usm El Harrach 2+ goals
32%
Usm El Harrach 3+ goals
11%
Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals
62%
Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals
25%
Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Usm El Harrach (draw refunded)
57%
Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Usm El Harrach at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Usm El Harrach attack 0.67 + Amal BOU Saada defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.16

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.94 + Usm El Harrach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Usm El Harrach scores more
40%
level
30%
Amal BOU Saada scores more
30%

Usm El Harrach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Usm El Harrach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Usm El Harrach vs Amal BOU Saada

Usm El Harrach and Amal BOU Saada drew 1-1 in League #187 on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 1er novembre 1954 in Algiers.