Usm El Harrach 2–1 Amal BOU Saada: Result & Stats

Usm El Harrach

FT

2 – 1

Amal BOU Saada

3/5/2020

League #187 · Round 18Stade du 1er novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Usm El Harrach45%

×Draw28%

Amal BOU Saada27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Usm El HarrachExpected goals in this matchAmal BOU Saada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

Usm El Harrach

1.30

Amal BOU Saada

0.95

Usm El Harrach creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

0.86

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Usm El Harrach

0.86

Amal BOU Saada

0.89

allows per match

Usm El Harrach

1.00

Amal BOU Saada

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Usm El Harrach+0.00on par

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Usm El Harrach ↓

Amal BOU Saada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Usm El Harrach or draw

73%

Usm El Harrach or Amal BOU Saada

72%

Draw or Amal BOU Saada

55%

Winning margin

Usm El Harrach wins by 2+

20%

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Usm El Harrach 1+ goals

73%

Usm El Harrach 2+ goals

37%

Usm El Harrach 3+ goals

14%

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

61%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

25%

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Usm El Harrach (draw refunded)

62%

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Usm El Harrach at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Usm El Harrach attack 0.86 + Amal BOU Saada defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.30

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.89 + Usm El Harrach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Usm El Harrach scores more

45%

level

28%

Amal BOU Saada scores more

27%

Usm El Harrach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Usm El Harrach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff