Amal BOU Saada 2–1 Usm El Harrach: Result & Stats

Amal BOU Saada

FT

2 – 1

Usm El Harrach

3/2/2019

League #187 · Round 24Stade Mokhtar Abdelatif (Bou Saâda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Amal BOU Saada47%

×Draw29%

Usm El Harrach24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Amal BOU SaadaExpected goals in this matchUsm El Harrach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.81

Amal BOU Saada

1.25

Usm El Harrach

0.81

Amal BOU Saada creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

0.63

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Amal BOU Saada

1.37

Usm El Harrach

1.00

allows per match

Amal BOU Saada

0.63

Usm El Harrach

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Usm El Harrach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amal BOU Saada ↓

Usm El Harrach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Amal BOU Saada or draw

76%

Amal BOU Saada or Usm El Harrach

71%

Draw or Usm El Harrach

53%

Winning margin

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

21%

Usm El Harrach wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

71%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

36%

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

13%

Usm El Harrach 1+ goals

56%

Usm El Harrach 2+ goals

19%

Usm El Harrach 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

66%

Usm El Harrach (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amal BOU Saada at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Usm El Harrach away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amal BOU Saada attack 1.37 + Usm El Harrach defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Usm El Harrach attack 1.00 + Amal BOU Saada defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Amal BOU Saada scores more

47%

level

29%

Usm El Harrach scores more

24%

Amal BOU Saada at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Amal BOU Saada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Amal

Usm