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US Rumelange vs AS Jeunesse Esch — Cup 2020

US Rumelange
US Rumelange
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Eschadvanced
J. A. Mendes 58', 10'
A. Mogni 48'
I. Latic 28', 7'
4/3/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

US Rumelange7%
×Draw10%
AS Jeunesse Esch82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

US Rumelange
1.11
AS Jeunesse Esch
3.71

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 234% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

US Rumelange
1.60
AS Jeunesse Esch
4.63

allows per match

US Rumelange
2.80
AS Jeunesse Esch
0.63

finishing

US Rumelange+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Rumelange ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

US Rumelange or draw
18%
US Rumelange or AS Jeunesse Esch
90%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
93%

Winning margin

US Rumelange wins by 2+
2%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

US Rumelange 1+ goals
67%
US Rumelange 2+ goals
30%
US Rumelange 3+ goals
10%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
97%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
87%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

US Rumelange (draw refunded)
8%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Rumelange at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 4.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Rumelange attack 1.60 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.11

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 4.63 + US Rumelange defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

US Rumelange scores more
7%
level
10%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
82%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
I. Latic
10'
J. A. Mendes
28'
I. Latic
48'
A. Mogni
58'
J. A. Mendes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: US Rumelange vs AS Jeunesse Esch

AS Jeunesse Esch beat US Rumelange 5-0 in Cup on April 3, 2024.

Goals: I. Latic (7', 28'), J. A. Mendes (10', 58'), A. Mogni (48').

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Rumelange.