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AS Jeunesse Esch vs US Rumelange — National Division 2018

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
3 – 1
US Rumelange
US Rumelange
8/12/2018National DivisionNational Division · Round 2Stade de la Frontière (Esch-Uelzecht (Esch-sur-Alzette))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch61%
×Draw21%
US Rumelange19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
2.07
US Rumelange
1.05

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 97% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 50 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.66
US Rumelange
0.94

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.17
US Rumelange
2.48

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
US Rumelange+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

US Rumelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
81%
AS Jeunesse Esch or US Rumelange
79%
Draw or US Rumelange
39%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
37%
US Rumelange wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
87%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
61%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
34%
US Rumelange 1+ goals
65%
US Rumelange 2+ goals
28%
US Rumelange 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
77%
US Rumelange (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.17 · 121 matches

US Rumelange away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.48 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.66 + US Rumelange defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.07

US Rumelange attack 0.94 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
61%
level
21%
US Rumelange scores more
19%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: AS Jeunesse Esch 3–1 US Rumelange

AS Jeunesse Esch beat US Rumelange 3-1 in National Division on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière (Esch-Uelzecht (Esch-sur-Alzette)).