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AS Jeunesse Esch vs US Rumelange — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
3 – 2
US Rumelange
US Rumelange
1/25/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch75%
×Draw14%
US Rumelange11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
3.07
US Rumelange
1.15

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 167% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
3.14
US Rumelange
1.17

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.14
US Rumelange
3.00

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
US Rumelange+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

US Rumelange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
89%
AS Jeunesse Esch or US Rumelange
86%
Draw or US Rumelange
25%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
55%
US Rumelange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
95%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
80%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
58%
US Rumelange 1+ goals
68%
US Rumelange 2+ goals
32%
US Rumelange 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
87%
US Rumelange (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 3.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

US Rumelange away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 3.14 + US Rumelange defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.07

US Rumelange attack 1.17 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
75%
level
14%
US Rumelange scores more
11%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: AS Jeunesse Esch 3–2 US Rumelange

AS Jeunesse Esch beat US Rumelange 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 25, 2023.