Urozhay 2–0 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leningradets

I. Moseychuk 90+5'

B. Reykhmen 47'

9/15/2024

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 9Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Urozhay39%

×Draw27%

Leningradets34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Urozhay

1.29

Leningradets

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

1.33

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Urozhay

1.33

Leningradets

1.07

allows per match

Urozhay

1.33

Leningradets

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

66%

Urozhay or Leningradets

73%

Draw or Leningradets

61%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

17%

Leningradets wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

72%

Urozhay 2+ goals

37%

Urozhay 3+ goals

14%

Leningradets 1+ goals

70%

Leningradets 2+ goals

34%

Leningradets 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

53%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 1.33 + Leningradets defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leningradets attack 1.07 + Urozhay defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urozhay scores more

39%

level

27%

Leningradets scores more

34%

Urozhay at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

E. Osipov

44'

I. Bykovskiy

47'

B. Reykhmen

64'

S. Ilyin← M. Bachinskiy

64'

S. Ratnikov← I. Bykovskiy

65'

G. Makhatadze

70'

E. Pesegov

73'

I. Moseychuk← G. Makhatadze

76'

R. Kazakov← M. Gorelishvili

76'

A. Kukharchuk← D. Yakovlev

82'

N. Bakalyuk← I. Bezdenezhnykh

88'

I. Zhilov← B. Reykhmen

88'

E. Kravchuk← M. Gaynov

90+5'

I. Moseychuk

Urozhay

Leningradets

1

Smirnov

69

Kozlov

57

▼

41

2

7

18

10

▼

Gorelishv

92

Barkov

77

▼

Bachinski

71

▼

1

11

19

96

37

7

87

▼

Bezdenezh

8

▼

Makhatadz

9

⚽

▼

Reykhmen

18

Solop

90

▼

Gaynov

Manager: V. Molchanov

73'▲I. Moseychuk←▼G. Makhatadze

82'▲N. Bakalyuk←▼I. Bezdenezhnykh

88'▲I. Zhilov←▼B. Reykhmen

88'▲E. Kravchuk←▼M. Gaynov

Urozhay substitutes

17Moseychuk22Bakalyuk6Zhilov78Kravchuk21Shalimov24Ternovskiy28Bayryev23Suvorov

Manager: M. Astafyev

64'▲S. Ilyin←▼M. Bachinskiy

64'▲S. Ratnikov←▼I. Bykovskiy

76'▲R. Kazakov←▼M. Gorelishvili

76'▲A. Kukharchuk←▼D. Yakovlev

Leningradets substitutes

23Ilyin28Ratnikov47Kazakov79Kukharchuk4Kudryavtsev9Rozmanov21Shepelev33Yakovlev68Grigoryev97Khityaev