Leningradets 1–0 Urozhay: Result & Stats | Cup

Leningradets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Urozhay

M. Votinov 88'

8/25/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 2Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Leningradets51%

×Draw24%

Urozhay25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeningradetsExpected goals in this matchUrozhay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.10

Leningradets

1.70

Urozhay

1.10

Leningradets creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Leningradets

1.60

Urozhay

1.00

allows per match

Leningradets

1.20

Urozhay

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par

Urozhay+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Urozhay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw

75%

Leningradets or Urozhay

76%

Draw or Urozhay

49%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+

28%

Urozhay wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals

82%

Leningradets 2+ goals

51%

Leningradets 3+ goals

24%

Urozhay 1+ goals

67%

Urozhay 2+ goals

30%

Urozhay 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)

68%

Urozhay (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Urozhay away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 1.60 + Urozhay defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Urozhay attack 1.00 + Leningradets defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leningradets scores more

51%

level

24%

Urozhay scores more

25%

Leningradets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

R. Umarov

29'

I. Bezdenezhnykh

55'

A. Kozlov← K. Klimov

60'

N. Gigolaev← N. Abdokov

62'

R. Krivulkin

65'

R. Vorobjev← N. Khlusov

70'

M. Sidorov

73'

R. Gigolaev← I. Petrov

75'

E. Kortsov← V. Sirotov

84'

M. Batov← E. Sukhanov

84'

M. Votinov← R. Umarov

88'

E. Gapon

88'

M. Votinov

90+4'

S. Takazov

Leningradets

Urozhay

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Kirjakov

65'▲R. Vorobjev←▼N. Khlusov

75'▲E. Kortsov←▼V. Sirotov

84'▲M. Batov←▼E. Sukhanov

84'▲M. Votinov←▼R. Umarov

Leningradets substitutes

VorobjevKortsovBatovVotinovZaytsevPetrovPolyakov

Manager: A. Tochilin

55'▲A. Kozlov←▼K. Klimov

60'▲N. Gigolaev←▼N. Abdokov

73'▲R. Gigolaev←▼I. Petrov

Urozhay substitutes

KozlovGigolaevGigolaevDemenshchinBarinovEdiev

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Urozhay

Leningradets beat Urozhay 1-0 in Cup on August 25, 2021.

Goals: M. Votinov (88').

The match was played at Roshchino Arena in Roshchino.

Leningradets vs Urozhay — Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Urozhay