Urozhay 0–2 Leningradets: Result & Stats

Urozhay

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Leningradets

M. Gorelishvili 38'

S. Ilyin 23'

5/5/2024

First League · Round 31Stadion Kuban

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Urozhay36%

×Draw30%

Leningradets34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrozhayExpected goals in this matchLeningradets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.03

Urozhay

1.07

Leningradets

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

0.98

creates per match

0.83

1.23

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Urozhay

0.98

Leningradets

0.83

allows per match

Urozhay

1.23

Leningradets

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urozhay+0.00on par

Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urozhay ↓

Leningradets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Urozhay or draw

66%

Urozhay or Leningradets

70%

Draw or Leningradets

64%

Winning margin

Urozhay wins by 2+

14%

Leningradets wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Urozhay 1+ goals

66%

Urozhay 2+ goals

29%

Urozhay 3+ goals

9%

Leningradets 1+ goals

64%

Leningradets 2+ goals

28%

Leningradets 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Urozhay (draw refunded)

51%

Leningradets (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urozhay at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Leningradets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urozhay attack 0.98 + Leningradets defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Leningradets attack 0.83 + Urozhay defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Urozhay scores more

36%

level

30%

Leningradets scores more

34%

Urozhay at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Urozhay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

23'

38'

41'

46'

G. Makhatadze← A. Sharipov

46'

N. Abdokov← O. Kenfack

49'

50'

50'

60'

63'

I. Moseychuk← G. Levin

63'

I. Gruznov← D. Ezhkov

69'

R. Apekov← S. Ilyin

69'

R. Kazakov← V. Shepelev

70'

A. Yakovlev← N. Rozmanov

73'

L. Fattakhov← A. Smirnov

80'

V. Zhironkin← M. Bachinskiy

90+1'

Ilya Moseychuk

Statistics

UrozhayLeningradets

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

First League: Urozhay 0–2 Leningradets

Leningradets beat Urozhay 2-0 in First League on May 5, 2024.

Goals: S. Ilyin (23'), M. Gorelishvili (38').

The match was played at Stadion Kuban in Krasnodar.

Urozhay vs Leningradets — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Urozhay 0–2 Leningradets