Urawa 4–1 Shonan Bellmare: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Shonan Bellmare

7/23/2025

J1 League · Round 21Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Urawa47%

×Draw26%

Shonan Bellmare27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.09

Urawa

1.52

Shonan Bellmare

1.09

Urawa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 142 away

1.49

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Urawa

1.49

Shonan Bellmare

1.12

allows per match

Urawa

1.06

Shonan Bellmare

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

73%

Urawa or Shonan Bellmare

74%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

53%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

24%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

78%

Urawa 2+ goals

45%

Urawa 3+ goals

20%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

66%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

30%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

63%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.06 · 151 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Urawa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urawa scores more

47%

level

26%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

27%

Urawa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff