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Urawa vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
7/6/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 22Urawa Komaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Urawa47%
×Draw26%
Shonan Bellmare27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.52
Shonan Bellmare
1.10

Urawa creates 38% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 142 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.49
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

Urawa
1.07
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
73%
Urawa or Shonan Bellmare
74%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
53%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
24%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
78%
Urawa 2+ goals
45%
Urawa 3+ goals
20%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
67%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
30%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
63%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urawa scores more
47%
level
26%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
27%

Urawa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urawa vs Shonan Bellmare

Shonan Bellmare beat Urawa 3-2 in J1 League on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Urawa Komaba Stadium in Saitama.