Shonan Bellmare 4–4 Urawa: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Urawa

3/17/2024

J1 League · Round 4Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Shonan Bellmare34%

×Draw28%

Urawa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.22

Shonan Bellmare

1.14

Urawa

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 153 away

1.01

creates per match

1.08

1.35

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.01

Urawa

1.08

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.35

Urawa

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

62%

Shonan Bellmare or Urawa

72%

Draw or Urawa

66%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

14%

Urawa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

68%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

32%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

11%

Urawa 1+ goals

70%

Urawa 2+ goals

34%

Urawa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

47%

Urawa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 153 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Urawa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.14

Urawa attack 1.08 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

34%

level

28%

Urawa scores more

38%

Urawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff