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Ural vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2024

Ural
Ural
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Torpedo Moskva
Torpedo Moskva
Dmitrii Tsypchenko 90+1'
7/13/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural45%
×Draw28%
Torpedo Moskva27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.32
Torpedo Moskva
0.96

Ural creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Torpedo Moskva
1.03

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Torpedo Moskva
0.94

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Torpedo Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ural or draw
73%
Ural or Torpedo Moskva
72%
Draw or Torpedo Moskva
55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
21%
Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
73%
Ural 2+ goals
38%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals
62%
Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals
25%
Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
62%
Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.03 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more
45%
level
28%
Torpedo Moskva scores more
27%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Daniil Kornyushin← Bojan Roganovic
46'
Aleksey Kashtanov
59'
Dmitrii Tsypchenko← Aleksey Kashtanov
59'
Vladimir Moskvichev← Aleksandr Orekhov
59'
Artur Galoyan← Aleksandr Yushin
70'
Vladislav Malkevich← Evgeniy Kharin
70'
Vitaliy Bondarev← Khoren Bayramyan
79'
Ruslan Apekov← Ilya Berkovskiy
81'
Nikita Morozov← Ilya Ishkov
90+1'
Dmitrii Tsypchenko

Possession

57%Ural

Shots

5Ural

Statistics

UralTorpedo
Overview
57%Possession43%
5Total Shots4
5Corners2
Shots
5Total Shots4
1On Target1
4Off Target3
0Blocked0
Passing
57%Possession43%
Discipline
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: Ural 0–1 Torpedo Moskva

Torpedo Moskva beat Ural 1-0 in First League on July 13, 2026.

Goals: Dmitrii Tsypchenko (90+1').

Ural controlled possession (57%) and registered 5 shots to 4.

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.