Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Ural: Result & Stats

Torpedo Moskva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ural

K. Danilin 50'

8/18/2025

First League · Round 5Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Torpedo Moskva44%

×Draw27%

Ural29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Torpedo MoskvaExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.03

Torpedo Moskva

1.35

Ural

1.03

Torpedo Moskva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 34 away

1.55

creates per match

1.21

0.85

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Torpedo Moskva

1.55

Ural

1.21

allows per match

Torpedo Moskva

0.85

Ural

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Moskva ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Torpedo Moskva or draw

71%

Torpedo Moskva or Ural

73%

Draw or Ural

56%

Winning margin

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

21%

Ural wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

15%

Ural 1+ goals

64%

Ural 2+ goals

28%

Ural 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

61%

Ural (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Moskva at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 106 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.55 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ural attack 1.21 + Torpedo Moskva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torpedo Moskva scores more

44%

level

27%

Ural scores more

29%

Torpedo Moskva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

44'

50'

60'

60'

63'

M. Voronov← T. Ayupov

64'

V. Churilov← G. Alykulov

64'

D. Bakic← A. Chupayov

75'

E. Mosin← I. Ishkov

75'

Leo Cordeiro← F. Sungatulin

76'

Roman Akbashev

80'

A. Kashtanov← M. Sekulic

81'

A. Ivankov← A. Galoyan

88'

V. Moskvichev← A. Orekhov

90'

D. Stepanov← K. Danilin

Statistics

TorpedoUral

Discipline

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

First League: Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Ural

Torpedo Moskva beat Ural 1-0 in First League on August 18, 2025.

Goals: K. Danilin (50').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.

Torpedo Moskva vs Ural — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Torpedo Moskva 1–0 Ural