Ural 2–0 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Torpedo Moskva

R. Akbashev 22'

S. Begic 13'

4/22/2026

First League · Round 30Yekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural44%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Moskva29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.05

Ural

1.38

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

Ural creates 31% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

1.71

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ural

1.71

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Ural

0.89

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw

71%

Ural or Torpedo Moskva

73%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

56%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

21%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

75%

Ural 2+ goals

40%

Ural 3+ goals

16%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

65%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

28%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

61%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.38

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ural scores more

44%

level

27%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

29%

Ural at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

22'

24'

33'

46'

M. Camara← I. Berkovsky

46'

A. Yushin← M. Curic

46'

A. Kashtanov← D. Tsypchenko

50'

Vladislav Malkevich

56'

Sadyg Bagiev

65'

D. Kalayda← S. Bagiev

72'

N. Morozov← I. Ishkov

72'

E. Bogomolskiy← M. Sekulic

73'

R. Apekov← V. Shitov

79'

V. Karapuzov← Y. Zheleznov

79'

V. Bondarev← D. Ivanisenia

88'

Artem Mamin

Ural4-2-3-1

Torpedo4-3-1-2

9

▼

Shitov

10

▼

Tsypchenk

17

▼

Berkovsky

47

Utkin

97

▼

Curic

66

▼

90

24

3

77

25

57

16

2

⚽

Begic

46

Mamin

44

Malkevich

21

▼

Ivaniseni

6

Sungatuli

14

▼

Zheleznov

13

⚽

Akbashev

97

▼

Ishkov

10

▼

Sekulic

Manager: Vasiliy Berezutskiy

72'▲N. Morozov←▼I. Ishkov

72'▲E. Bogomolskiy←▼M. Sekulic

79'▲V. Karapuzov←▼Y. Zheleznov

79'▲V. Bondarev←▼D. Ivanisenia

Ural substitutes

1Oparin86Kuznetsov24Filipenko34Margasov4Bardachev9Mosin11Karapuzov18Morozov37Bondarev19Bogomolskiy20Markov

Manager: Oleg Kononov

46'▲M. Camara←▼I. Berkovsky

46'▲A. Yushin←▼M. Curic

46'▲A. Kashtanov←▼D. Tsypchenko

65'▲D. Kalayda←▼S. Bagiev

73'▲R. Apekov←▼V. Shitov

Torpedo Moskva substitutes

86Korets99Shevchenko4Borodin84Churilov5Moskvichev27Orekhov20Kalayda83Ishchenko33Camara11Apekov7Yushin79Kashtanov

First League: Ural 2–0 Torpedo Moskva

Ural beat Torpedo Moskva 2-0 in First League on April 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Begic (13'), R. Akbashev (22').

The match was played at Yekaterinburg Arena in Yekaterinburg.

Ural vs Torpedo Moskva — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Ural 2–0 Torpedo Moskva