Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ural vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

Ural
Ural
Preview
15:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
4/14/2027First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Yekaterinburg Arena
Big match
45%
Ural
model favours
45%28%27%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural45%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.35
Rotor Volgograd
0.99

Ural creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Rotor Volgograd
1.08

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Rotor Volgograd
1.00

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ural or draw
73%
Ural or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
21%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
39%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
63%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
26%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
62%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.08 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more
45%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
27%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ural
LDWLL
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ural host Rotor Volgograd

April 14, 2027: Ural take on Rotor Volgograd in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ural host Rotor Volgograd at Yekaterinburg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.