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Ural vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
M. Sekulić 90+3'
V. Morozov 63'
9/7/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 9Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural45%
×Draw28%
Rotor Volgograd28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.33
Rotor Volgograd
0.98

Ural creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 87 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Rotor Volgograd
1.06

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ural or draw
72%
Ural or Rotor Volgograd
72%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
55%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
21%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
38%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
62%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
26%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
62%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.06 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ural scores more
45%
level
28%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
28%

Ural at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
Mikhail Maltsev
59'
V. Morozov← V. Tyurin
59'
I. Kukharchuk← M. Ageev
63'
V. Morozov
66'
M. Sekulić← T. Ayupov
69'
Y. Zavezen← E. Bolotov
69'
D. Kamlashev← T. Kasimov
77'
D. Miškić← A. Ionov
79'
Z. Pliev← M. Maltsev
90+4'
Silvije Begić
90+1'
Fanil Sungatulin
90+1'
Silvije Begić
90+4'
Silvije Begić
90+1'
Ilya Kukharchuk
90+3'
M. Sekulić

Statistics

UralRotor
Discipline
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Ural vs Rotor Volgograd

Ural and Rotor Volgograd drew 1-1 in First League on September 7, 2024.

Goals: V. Morozov (63'), M. Sekulić (90+3').

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.