Rotor Volgograd 0–0 Ural: Result & Stats

Rotor Volgograd

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ural

3/3/2025

First League · Round 22Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rotor Volgograd38%

×Draw29%

Ural34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rotor VolgogradExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.09

Rotor Volgograd

1.17

Ural

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

1.21

0.98

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Rotor Volgograd

1.19

Ural

1.21

allows per match

Rotor Volgograd

0.98

Ural

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotor Volgograd ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rotor Volgograd or draw

66%

Rotor Volgograd or Ural

71%

Draw or Ural

62%

Winning margin

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

16%

Ural wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

69%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

33%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

11%

Ural 1+ goals

66%

Ural 2+ goals

30%

Ural 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

53%

Ural (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotor Volgograd at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.98 · 85 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.19 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ural attack 1.21 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rotor Volgograd scores more

38%

level

29%

Ural scores more

34%

Rotor Volgograd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Mikhail Maltsev

41'

Ilya Safronov

45+1'

Mingiyan Beveev

62'

G. Shilnikov← M. Maltsev

62'

T. Kasimov← I. Safronov

62'

I. Kukharchuk← S. Makarov

64'

A. Egorychev← I. Ishkov

71'

D. Lavrishchev← M. Turishchev

79'

E. Mosin← D. Kuznetsov

82'

Timur Ayupov

84'

Y. Zheleznov← T. Ayupov

Statistics

RotorUral

Discipline

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0