Ural 1–0 Rotor Volgograd: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotor Volgograd

E. Bicfalvi 83'

3/13/2021

Premier League · Round 22Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ural48%

×Draw26%

Rotor Volgograd26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.00

Ural

1.47

Rotor Volgograd

1.00

Ural creates 47% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 16 away

1.12

creates per match

0.69

1.31

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Rotor Volgograd

0.69

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Rotor Volgograd

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw

74%

Ural or Rotor Volgograd

74%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

52%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

24%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

77%

Ural 2+ goals

43%

Ural 3+ goals

18%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

63%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

26%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

65%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Rotor Volgograd defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rotor Volgograd attack 0.69 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ural scores more

48%

level

26%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

26%

Ural at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

D. Kulakov

Ural · D

8.2

Match Events

40'

Flamarion← N. Kipiani

63'

A. Panyukov← P. Pogrebnyak

68'

R. Gadzhimuradov← O. El Kabir

79'

V. Podberezkin← D. Miškić

79'

A. Evseev← A. Egorychev

83'

E. Bicfalvi↳ D. Kulakov

86'

K. Mullin← A. Bayryev

87'

G. Arabidze← I. Zhigulev

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralRotor

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots5

4Corners7

10Fouls9

Shots

18Total Shots5

7On Target0

7Off Target3

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

554Total Passes374

435Accurate Passes246

79%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Offsides1