Ural 0–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Ural

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

9/17/2023

Premier League · Round 8Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Ural46%

×Draw27%

Fakel Voronezh27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.02

Ural

1.40

Fakel Voronezh

1.02

Ural creates 37% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

1.12

creates per match

0.74

1.31

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Fakel Voronezh

0.74

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Fakel Voronezh

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw

73%

Ural or Fakel Voronezh

73%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

54%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

22%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

75%

Ural 2+ goals

41%

Ural 3+ goals

17%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

64%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

27%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

62%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.74 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ural scores more

46%

level

27%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

27%

Ural at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

A. Belenov

Fakel Voronezh · G

8.9

Match Events

46'

Guilherme Schettine← T. Ayupov

62'

M. Beveev← Kiki

62'

I. Ishkov← A. Yushin

65'

K. Appaev← E. Markov

66'

A. Bagamaev← V. Yakimov

70'

I. Cissé← A. Kashtanov

74'

A. Dolgov← N. Moțpan

77'

Denys Kulakov

83'

Silvije BegićGoal cancelled

84'

Silvije Begić

90+1'

F. Sungatulin← I. Dmitriev

90+5'

T. Cele← R. Magal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralFakel

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots10

6Corners9

8Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target3

3Off Target2

7Blocked5

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

361Total Passes336

236Accurate Passes203

65%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3