Fakel Voronezh 0–0 Ural: Result & Stats

Fakel Voronezh

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ural

5/12/2024

Premier League · Round 28Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fakel Voronezh44%

×Draw29%

Ural28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fakel VoronezhExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Fakel Voronezh

1.25

Ural

0.93

Fakel Voronezh creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

0.89

creates per match

0.89

0.96

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.89

Ural

0.89

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh

0.96

Ural

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw

72%

Fakel Voronezh or Ural

71%

Draw or Ural

56%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

20%

Ural wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

71%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

36%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

13%

Ural 1+ goals

61%

Ural 2+ goals

24%

Ural 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

61%

Ural (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Ural away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 0.89 + Ural defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ural attack 0.89 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more

44%

level

29%

Ural scores more

28%

Fakel Voronezh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Begić

Ural · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

Ilya Ishkov

46'

A. Ionov← I. Ishkov

62'

E. Bicfalvi← D. Miškić

66'

Rayan Senhadji

72'

M. Maksimov← R. Akbashev

72'

N. Moțpan← E. Markov

75'

Y. Gazinskiy← I. Cissé

84'

Eric Bicfalvi

90+3'

K. Suslov← R. Senhadji

90+2'

Guilherme Schettine← A. Kashtanov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FakelUral

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots7

9Corners2

11Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots7

1On Target1

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box0

Passing

46%Possession54%

283Total Passes363

169Accurate Passes219

60%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1