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Fakel vs Ural — First League 2018

Fakel
Fakel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ural
Ural
2/27/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Fakel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Fakel40%
×Draw30%
Ural30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel
1.15
Ural
0.96

Fakel creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 34 away

creates per match

Fakel
1.16
Ural
1.21

allows per match

Fakel
0.72
Ural
1.15

finishing

Fakel+0.00on par
Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel ↓

Ural →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fakel or draw
70%
Fakel or Ural
70%
Draw or Ural
60%

Winning margin

Fakel wins by 2+
17%
Ural wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fakel 1+ goals
68%
Fakel 2+ goals
32%
Fakel 3+ goals
11%
Ural 1+ goals
62%
Ural 2+ goals
25%
Ural 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fakel (draw refunded)
57%
Ural (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.72 · 90 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel attack 1.16 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ural attack 1.21 + Fakel defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fakel scores more
40%
level
30%
Ural scores more
30%

Fakel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fakel 1 – 0 Ural

Fakel beat Ural 1-0 in First League on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at Fakel Stadium in Voronezh.