Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ural vs Baltika — First League 2018

Ural
Ural
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Baltika
Baltika
M. Sekulić 63' (pen)
T. Margasov 7'
I. Stefanovich 86'
A. Osipov 70'
A. Mokhammad 66', 44'
S. Pryakhin 36'
4/26/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural42%
×Draw27%
Baltika31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.35
Baltika
1.11

Ural creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 109 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Baltika
1.34

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Baltika
1.00

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ural or draw
69%
Ural or Baltika
73%
Draw or Baltika
58%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
20%
Baltika wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
74%
Ural 2+ goals
39%
Ural 3+ goals
15%
Baltika 1+ goals
67%
Baltika 2+ goals
30%
Baltika 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
58%
Baltika (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Baltika attack 1.34 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ural scores more
42%
level
27%
Baltika scores more
31%

Ural at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. Margasov
33'
Ítalo
36'
S. Pryakhin
44'
A. Mokhammad
46'
M. Sekulić← S. Bessmertny
54'
Fanil Sungatulin
61'
I. Stefanovich← B. Gil
63'
M. Voronov← E. Markov
63'
M. SekulićPenalty
66'
A. Mokhammad
70'
A. Osipov
71'
O. Isaenko← I. Petrov
71'
Y. Kovalev← N. Titkov
74'
Y. Zheleznov← I. Chudin
74'
I. Ishkov← E. Mosin
80'
Sergey Pryakhin
84'
T. Ayupov← F. Sungatulin
86'
I. Stefanovich
87'
D. Terentyev← A. Mokhammad
87'
R. Ozdoev← M. Petrov
89'
Vladislav Saus

Statistics

UralBaltika
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Ural 2–5 Baltika

Baltika beat Ural 5-2 in First League on April 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Margasov (7'), S. Pryakhin (36'), A. Mokhammad (44', 66'), M. Sekulić (63' pen), A. Osipov (70'), I. Stefanovich (86').

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.