Ural 2–1 Baltika: Result & Stats | Premier League

Ural

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Baltika

A. Ionov 90+5'

A. Kashtanov 19' (pen)

V. Lisakovich 1'

5/6/2024

Premier League · Round 27Ekaterinburg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ural34%

×Draw28%

Baltika38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UralExpected goals in this matchBaltika

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.21

Ural

1.13

Baltika

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 30 away

1.12

creates per match

1.10

1.31

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ural

1.12

Baltika

1.10

allows per match

Ural

1.31

Baltika

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ural+0.00on par

Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Baltika →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ural or draw

62%

Ural or Baltika

72%

Draw or Baltika

66%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+

14%

Baltika wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals

68%

Ural 2+ goals

31%

Ural 3+ goals

11%

Baltika 1+ goals

70%

Baltika 2+ goals

34%

Baltika 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)

47%

Baltika (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 93 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.12 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Baltika attack 1.10 + Ural defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ural scores more

34%

level

28%

Baltika scores more

38%

Baltika at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. Begić

Ural · D

7.7

Match Events

1'

V. Lisakovich↳ Y. Kovalev

17'

Ilya IshkovPenalty confirmed

19'

A. KashtanovPenalty

46'

Emmersón← E. Filipenko

46'

D. Rybchinskiy← K. Malyarov

46'

K. Kaplenko← D. Kozlov

57'

E. Bicfalvi← I. Cissé

64'

I. Ostojić← Á. Henríquez

72'

Y. Gazinskiy← T. Ayupov

73'

A. Ionov← I. Dmitriev

75'

M. Kuzmin← V. Lisakovich

77'

Aleksey Ionov

85'

N. Radmanovac← Y. Kovalev

89'

Guilherme Schettine← A. Kashtanov

90+8'

Kevin Andrade

90+5'

A. Ionov↳ Ítalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UralBaltika

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots14

10Corners9

3Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked4

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

417Total Passes321

306Accurate Passes222

73%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls19

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Ural vs Baltika

Ural beat Baltika 2-1 in Premier League on May 6, 2024.

Goals: V. Lisakovich (1'), A. Kashtanov (19' pen), A. Ionov (90+5').

Ural controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Ekaterinburg Arena in Ekaterinburg.

Ural vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ural vs Baltika