Baltika 2–1 Ural: Result & Stats | First League

Baltika

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ural

S. Varatynov 58'

V. Lisakovich 40'

A. Egorychev 6'

10/26/2024

First League · Round 16Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Baltika41%

×Draw29%

Ural30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Baltika

1.21

Ural

0.98

Baltika creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 34 away

1.27

creates per match

1.21

0.75

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Ural

1.21

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Ural

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

70%

Baltika or Ural

71%

Draw or Ural

59%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

18%

Ural wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

70%

Baltika 2+ goals

34%

Baltika 3+ goals

12%

Ural 1+ goals

62%

Ural 2+ goals

26%

Ural 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

58%

Ural (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.75 · 108 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ural attack 1.21 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baltika scores more

41%

level

29%

Ural scores more

30%

Baltika at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. Egorychev

37'

Abu-Said Eldarushev

40'

V. Lisakovich

46'

K. Appaev← A. Eldarushev

46'

V. Saus← A. Mokhammad

51'

Kevin Andrade

58'

S. Varatynov

63'

I. Porokhov← A. Ionov

63'

I. Ishkov← E. Mosin

68'

T. Margasov← M. Beveev

77'

K. Malyarov← Y. Kovalev

77'

D. Begun← V. Lisakovich

82'

Artem Mamin← D. Miškić

82'

F. Sungatulin← T. Ayupov

88'

I. Stefanovich← K. Appaev

90+4'

Sergey Pryakhin

Statistics

BaltikaUral

Discipline

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

First League: Baltika 2–1 Ural

Baltika beat Ural 2-1 in First League on October 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Egorychev (6'), V. Lisakovich (40'), S. Varatynov (58').

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.

Baltika vs Ural — First League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

First League: Baltika 2–1 Ural